Forecasters say Roslyn will likely take a path that parallels Mexico’s southern coastline for a few days before it turns toward the northeast. This path is forecast to place the system on a crash course with the states of Sinaloa, Nayarit and Jalisco later this weekend into early next week.

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – October 21, 2022 – The brief break in tropical activity across the eastern Pacific Ocean has come to an end with the formation of Tropical Storm Roslyn south of Mexico. AccuWeather forecasters say the storm, the season’s 17th named system, can take a similar path to Orlene from earlier in the month, striking the western coast of Mexico with heavy rain and damaging winds as a hurricane.

Roslyn, which originated as Tropical Depression 19-E on Wednesday evening, is the first named storm to roam the East Pacific since Julia, which crossed over from the Atlantic basin. The last storm to actually form in the basin was Tropical Storm Paine. Paine developed in the open waters of the Pacific during the first week of October and was never a threat to land.

Unlike Paine, forecasters say Roslyn poses a significant risk to portions of western Mexico. AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Roslyn a 2 for Mexico on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes based on the expected impacts from wind, rain and storm surge flooding.

Tropical Storm Roslyn was approaching hurricane strength just to the southwest of Mexico over the eastern Pacific Ocean early Friday morning, Oct. 21, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)

As of 7 a.m. CDT Friday, Roslyn was about 190 miles (305 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Roslyn had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, meaning it was just 9 mph shy of Category 1 hurricane strength. The storm was trudging slowly to the west-northwest at a speed of 7 mph.

Forecasters said the tropical storm is located in an environment where atmospheric factors are conducive for further development.

Ahead of Roslyn’s arrival, a hurricane warning is in effect from the Mexican coastline from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. A hurricane watch has been issued north of there, from north of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito as well as Las Islas Marias. South of the hurricane warning, a tropical storm warning is in effect from south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo.