Crossing the Line: 2024 on Track to Breach 1.5°C Global Warming Limit

2024 is set to become the first year with global temperatures exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, marking the first calendar year to reach this symbolic limit. This record-setting year follows months of unprecedented heatwaves, intense storms, and other climate disruptions, driven predominantly by human activities like fossil fuel burning, with additional warming from the natural El Niño phenomenon. According to projections by the European Climate Service, 2024 will likely end at least 1.55°C above pre-industrial averages, setting a new global temperature record and eclipsing the previous high of 1.48°C set in 2023.

Although the Paris Agreement aimed to limit warming to 1.5°C in the long term to avoid the worst climate impacts, each year surpassing this level brings us closer to breaching it permanently. The record-breaking warmth in 2024, despite El Niño ending in early April, signals the urgency of this crisis. UN projections show that, based on current policies, the planet could warm by over 3°C this century, intensifying the climate-related threats to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide.

With COP29 beginning on Monday, climate experts urge global leaders to prioritize stronger emissions cuts and more robust adaptation measures. “This latest record sends a stark warning to governments at COP29 of the urgent need for action,” stresses Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Scientists, including Professor Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading, underscore that stabilizing global temperatures and reducing the frequency of severe weather events will only be possible if we achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Rising global temperatures continue to worsen the intensity of storms, heat waves, and rainfall, leading to heightened impacts worldwide. Stabilizing emissions and achieving net zero remain the only paths to mitigating the escalating social, economic, and environmental costs of climate change.