July 19, 2024

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CCUS Capture Capacity to Reach 2.5 Gigatonnes Per Annum By 2045, Finds New IDTechEx Report

By Eve Pope, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies strip carbon dioxide (CO₂) from waste gases and directly from the atmosphere before either storing it underground or using it for a range of industrial applications. By preventing CO2 from accumulating in the atmosphere, CCUS offers a ready-now pathway to decarbonize existing fossil fuel assets while also enabling the growth of emerging sustainable industrial sectors such as blue hydrogen and BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage). IDTechEx forecasts that CCUS capture capacity will reach 2.5 gigatonnes per annum by 2045, according to the new IDTechEx report “Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Markets 2025-2045: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”.

Accelerating uptake of CCUS

Historically, although carbon capture technologies are mature and well-established, wide-scale deployment of CCUS has been hindered by the high costs associated with capturing CO2. This is due to the high penalty from solvent regeneration. For CCUS to reach the levels necessary to meet net zero by 2050 targets, innovative new capture solutions will be required to reduce costs. Alternative point source capture technologies, including emerging solvents, sorbents, membranes, cryogenic methods, and oxyfuel designs, are being developed in the search for lower capture costs. This report includes analysis, benchmarking, key players, and the latest advancements for all major carbon capture technologies, enabling a selection of the best technology for a specific emission scenario.

In parallel with decreasing costs, economic incentivization for CCUS is increasing, driven by government carbon pricing policies (such as the EU ETS and US 45Q tax credit) and emerging CO2 utilization applications. Achieving economic viability is critical for large-scale deployment of CCUS. IDTechEx analysis has indicated that profitable carbon capture is already possible for several sectors within the current regulatory landscape. Carbon pricing is expected to keep increasing globally, accelerating the market potential of CCUS.

A paradigm shift in the CCUS business model

So far, CCUS projects have used a full-chain approach, where a single entity manages the entire CCUS value chain (capture, compression, transportation, and then utilization/storage). Analysis of the future CCUS project pipeline from IDTechEx reveals that a new fragmented CCUS business model will soon emerge, with oil and gas players leveraging existing expertise and infrastructure to begin providing partial chain CO2 transport and/or storage services, simplifying project development for emitters.

The CCUS value chain. Source: IDTechEx

Key industrial applications for CCUS

Within industry, CCUS provides a retrofittable means of decarbonizing existing industrial assets. While several industries may eventually see greener solutions emerge, CCUS uses ready-now technologies and can provide emission reductions quickly as a transitionary stepping stone. For example, although renewable power generation will ultimately replace fossil-fuel-based power stations, the transition will be slow. In the meantime, CCUS can provide rapid decarbonization of existing power stations.

Emerging sustainable sectors such as bioenergy and blue hydrogen can also benefit from CCUS. Bioenergy is a promising candidate for decarbonizing industrial processes that rely on fossil fuels to generate high temperatures, and combining this with carbon capture offers further emission reductions. Moreover, developing a hydrogen economy is seen as a key tool for global decarbonization, and adding CCUS technologies to fossil-fuel-based hydrogen methods can kick-start hydrogen production growth and put infrastructure in the ground until greener electrolyzer technology reaches maturity. The new IDTechEx report, “Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Markets 2025-2045: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”, identifies which industrial sectors hold the greatest opportunity for CCUS deployment and examines sector-specific drivers and barriers.

Breakdown of how the share of point-source captured CO2 by industrial sector will vary over the next twenty years. Source: IDTechEx

Comprehensive analysis and market forecasts

“Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Markets 2025-2045: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players” provides a comprehensive outlook of the emerging CCUS industry and carbon markets, with an in-depth analysis of the technological, economic, regulatory, and environmental aspects that are set to shape the CCUS industry over the next 20 years. Carbon capture, carbon utilization, and carbon storage technologies are evaluated, discussing each area’s latest advancements, key players, opportunities, and barriers. The report also includes a 20-year granular forecast until 2045 for CCUS CO2 capture capacity (segmented by CO2 endpoint, point-source vs DAC, and is further broken down into 5 industrial sectors), alongside exclusive analysis, over 80 interview-based company profiles, and coverage of 350+ companies.

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