Africa’s Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads: The Alarming Impact of Climate Change Revealed in the 2024 AATM Report
By Justin Kayiranga (info@topafricanews.com)
As climate change disrupts Africa’s agricultural trade, the 2024 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor by AKADEMIYA2063 highlights the urgent need for adaptation and resilience-building to balance the continent’s food imports and exports.
Unveiled on August 29th 2024, during a high-profile event attended by key stakeholders in the agricultural and trade sectors, the report highlights the significant strides Africa has made in enhancing intra-continental trade, while also addressing the persistent barriers that hinder the full realization of Africa’s agricultural potential.
However, the report reveals that climate change will significantly impact trade flows due to shifting comparative advantages associated with rising temperatures, variations in precipitation, and plant pests and diseases which can trigger increases in net cereal imports in some areas balance out decreases in other regions like Eastern Africa that will experience the largest increase of 15% in net cereal imports due to large negative changes in maize yields.
According to findings endorsed in the report, countries like Morocco, Nigeria and Senegal are set to experience a sink in their exports to -90% and over while the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa’s net export will sink to -59.49%.
“All of the most important indicators of climate change in Africa—such as temperature increases and sea level rise—are above global averages. Therefore, given the continent’s degree of exposure and the size of the shocks it faces, significant impacts are expected from climate change–induced events in Africa.” Quoting the report.
Among other key subjects discussed in this report include the issue of water stress that is worsening due to climate change
For Dr. Ousmane Badiane, the Executive Chairperson of AKADEMIYA2063, he encouraged African Countries to use this report for their future plans especially in agriculture trade stating that “This is the only report that does what it does. So, there’s not a second report like it. Every country has different issues, different priorities, and strategies that they follow. But if you just look at this report this year, is that if you’re doing well, exporting let’s say mangoes or vegetables, fruits, and vegetables, you might want to think about how you reduce water stress in the years to come to protect your competitiveness in fruits and vegetables.”
“So, there is a lot that you can pull from here and use as you focus on what you need to do.”
Speaking at the launch of this report, Dr. Agnes Kalibata, the President of Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), highlighted political environment as one of the key players to driving intra Africa trade by facilitating infrastructure that can ease the affordability and movement of goods from places to others.
” I was having a conversation with someone in one country, very productive country, and what was interesting was that a major production area that was serviced by railway had just been replaced by a tracking system of one company. And food had, as a result, become extremely expensive and basically even not accessible.”
She added that “sometimes I get the feeling that we are our worst enemy. Who would replace a railway that delivers food affordably with a trucking system that needs expensive roads, that takes only so much tonnage per truck? I mean things that don’t seem to make sense but in the political environment, sometimes they make sense.
The annual Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) provides an analysis of global and regional trends in African agricultural trade flows and policies. By providing updated annual statistics and data on trade patterns, the AATM helps to monitor the evolution of African participation in world agricultural trade, as well as the progress made in enhancing intra-African trade. This 2024 AATM has a special focus on the trade and climate change nexus, including the impact of climate change on agricultural yields and thus on trade, and the relationship of trade with carbon emissions and water use.
