Most countries off track to meet 2030 food systems goals, new study finds
Most countries around the world are unlikely to meet internationally agreed 2030 targets for transforming their food systems, with greenhouse gas emissions among the areas furthest off track, a new global study has found.
Published in Nature Food, the assessment by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI) covers 197 countries and 44 indicators across five areas: diets, nutrition and health; environment and natural resources; livelihoods, poverty and equity; governance; and resilience.
The study goes beyond tracking whether countries are moving in the right direction to assess how close they are to meeting global targets and how quickly progress needs to accelerate.
Of 30 indicators assessed against global targets, only one, mobile phone subscriptions, used as a proxy for connectedness and resilience, has been met by most countries.
For 22 indicators, fewer than one-third of countries are projected to meet their target or benchmark by 2030.
Food systems greenhouse gas emissions are among the biggest concerns. The global average remains 75% away from the target, and no country is projected to meet it by 2030 at the current pace of progress.
“What makes this Countdown paper different is that it doesn’t just tell countries whether they’re moving in the right direction, it tells them how far they still have to go,” said Bianca Carducci, the study’s lead author.
The scale of the challenge varies by region. African countries would need improvements of at least 15% to 20% every year across 23 indicators to reach the 2030 targets, while Asia would need to cut food insecurity by more than 63% annually.
Even high-income regions face major gaps. In Europe, 19 indicators are projected to remain unattainable by 2030 at the current pace.
The study also identifies indicators moving in the wrong direction, including civil society participation, government accountability, sales of ultra-processed foods, agricultural water withdrawals, pesticide use and food systems emissions.
However, researchers say there are signs of progress. For seven of 33 indicators, at least one-third of countries are already on track to meet the 2030 target, while half of the indicators have been moving in a desirable direction globally.
Regional benchmarks could also make progress more achievable. African countries are, on average, 58.7% away from the global benchmark for affordability of a healthy diet, but the gap falls to 32.2% when compared with the average performance of the top fifth of African countries.
“Bold global targets are vital for inspiring ambition. But they can become a source of inertia if they seem permanently out of reach,” said Jessica Fanzo of Johns Hopkins University.
The researchers identify government effectiveness and accountability as critical leverage points for accelerating progress across the food system.
“Improving them unlocks progress across the entire system,” said Lawrence Haddad, Executive Director of the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.
The study calls for faster and more coordinated action, particularly on food affordability, food insecurity, governance and food systems emissions.
“Our global food systems demand urgent, decisive action, starting now,” said José Rosero Moncayo, FAO’s Chief Statistician.
About The Author
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER
