Rising Incomes Fuel Animal-Source Food Demand, But Hunger and Emissions Persist, Says New Report

New projections highlight uneven global nutrition gains and stress the need for sustainable agricultural productivity.

As incomes grow in middle-income countries, the global consumption of animal-source foods is projected to rise significantly over the next decade. But without urgent improvements in agricultural productivity and emissions reductions, the world risks falling short of critical goals for eradicating hunger and curbing climate impacts, warns a joint report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, released today, forecasts a 6% increase in global per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish products over the next ten years. Most of this growth will come from lower-middle-income countries, where consumption is set to rise by 24%, nearly four times the global average.

“This represents a welcome trend toward better nutrition in developing countries,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu. “But we must go further to ensure the benefits reach the lowest-income populations.”

Uneven Progress in Global Nutrition

Despite the positive trend in dietary diversity, the report highlights stark disparities. In low-income countries, daily per capita intake of animal-source foods will average just 143 kilocalories—far below the 300-kcal benchmark used by FAO to define an affordable, healthy diet.

“This continued gap signals the need for more inclusive food systems,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “We have the tools to end hunger, but success depends on smarter, coordinated policies and investment in agricultural sustainability.”

Production Growth Comes With Trade-Offs

Global production of agricultural and fish commodities is expected to grow by 14% by 2034, largely driven by efficiency gains in middle-income nations. However, the expansion will also involve a 17% increase in output of meat, dairy, and eggs—and a 7% rise in livestock inventories. That, in turn, will push direct agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up by 6%, even as emissions intensity per unit of food declines.

To mitigate climate impacts, the report calls for widespread adoption of available low-emission technologies, such as precision agriculture, enhanced livestock feed, improved nutrient and water management, and crop rotation.

“Agriculture can be both productive and sustainable,” QU Dongyu said. “The FAO and OECD stand ready to support countries in scaling up these solutions.”

Productivity: The Key to Feeding the Future

According to the report, improving productivity by just 15% could eliminate global undernourishment and reduce agricultural GHG emissions by 7%—but achieving this will require major investments. Smallholder farmers, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, face structural barriers such as limited market access, volatile prices, and a lack of modern tools.

The report emphasizes the need for locally tailored support programs and better infrastructure to ensure smallholders can benefit from global agricultural trends. “Without inclusive growth, efforts to fight hunger and emissions will fall short,” the Outlook warns.

Trade, Biofuels, and Regional Shifts

The Outlook also underscores the importance of international trade in ensuring food security. It predicts that 22% of all global calories will cross borders before final consumption. A rules-based, cooperative trade system is essential to smooth out supply shocks and balance food surpluses and deficits.

The report projects that global cereal production will grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, driven mainly by yield improvements, as harvested area expands only marginally. By 2034, 40% of all cereals will be consumed directly by humans, while 33% will be used for animal feed, with the remainder going toward biofuel production and industrial uses. Demand for biofuels is expected to grow by 0.9% annually, led primarily by Brazil, India, and Indonesia.

Significant regional differences also emerge in the Outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa’s beef cattle herd is projected to grow by 15%, yet output per animal remains just one-tenth of North American levels, pointing to major productivity gaps. Meanwhile, India and Southeast Asia are set to drive 39% of global food consumption growth by 2034, up from 32% in the previous decade. In contrast, high-income countries are expected to reduce their per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners, reflecting evolving dietary preferences, increased health awareness, and policy interventions.

A Call to Action

With the world facing mounting challenges of malnutrition, climate change, and inequality, the 2025–2034 Outlook offers both a roadmap and a warning. Boosting productivity sustainably, embracing innovation, and strengthening global cooperation are not just options—they are imperatives.