Mwenda: ‘Fake Intelligence’ Nearly Sparked Uganda-Rwanda War; Analyst Blasts Museveni’s Infrastructure Crisis

KAMPALA/KIGALI – In a wide-ranging interview on The Long Form Podcast, veteran Ugandan journalist and strategic advisor Andrew Mwenda revealed that intelligence manipulation nearly drove Uganda and Rwanda to war, while offering a stark critique of the current state of infrastructure under President Yoweri Museveni.

Mwenda, who serves on President Paul Kagame’s Presidential Advisory Council, provided an insider’s account of the diplomatic fallout between the two East African nations that peaked with the border closure in 2019. He argued that the conflict was exacerbated by false intelligence reports given to President Museveni, suggesting that “intelligence officials can manipulate intelligence information to achieve particular ends”.

Intelligence Failures and the Brink of War

Mwenda, who acted as an envoy between the two leaders during the crisis, described the situation as a dangerous escalation where leaders were fed misinformation. He noted that false reports claimed Rwanda had infiltrated Ugandan security agencies, leading to the arrest and harassment of innocent Rwandans and Ugandans associated with Rwanda.

“Governments do not act on the best of truth; governments act on the best of information they have and believe to be true,” Mwenda stated, warning that compromised systems can lead nations to act against their own best interests. He emphasized that even when leaders wish to avoid war, escalated standoffs can force their hands to preserve authority.

Mwenda credited General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda’s current Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), with de-escalating the tension. He described Muhoozi as deeply committed to a cordial relationship with Rwanda, noting that if the General had his way, the two nations would have a “defense pact” and conduct joint military operations.

However, Mwenda observed a “structural stress” inherent in the region. He argued that the Ugandan and Rwandan militaries are “organic revolutionary armies,” and historical precedents show that revolutionary movements in neighboring countries often end up in strategic competition.

Rwanda’s “Identity Economics” and Global Ambitions

Turning to Rwanda, Mwenda offered insights into President Kagame’s governance and the country’s economic strategy. He dismissed concerns about Kagame’s eventual succession, describing the President as a man with a “rich life” outside of politics, including deep interests in family, sports, and business, which would make retirement personally easier for him than for other leaders.

Despite Rwanda’s resource constraints, Mwenda highlighted the country’s ambitious goals, including plans to host a Formula 1 circuit and become a logistics hub for the region. He attributed Rwanda’s punching above its weight to what he termed “identity economics”—a deliberate effort by Kagame to instill a sense of dignity and greatness in the Rwandan people.

“Money will follow ideas; ideas don’t follow money,” Mwenda argued, defending Rwanda’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 75% by suggesting that transformative growth requires aggressive investment rather than conservative fiscal policies.

Museveni’s Legacy and the 2026 Election

While acknowledging President Museveni as a brilliant strategic thinker who stabilized Uganda and fostered 40 years of economic growth, Mwenda offered a harsh assessment of the current administration’s managerial failures. He pointed to the “atrocious collapse” of the national road network, specifically the vital trade route from Kampala to Jinja, as a significant failure of policy.

“If you cannot maintain the roads that you have in good order, how are you going to drive these promises?” Mwenda asked, citing data that traffic congestion and poor infrastructure cost Uganda 6.7% of its potential growth annually.

Looking toward the 2026 elections, Mwenda predicted another victory for Museveni, not necessarily due to overwhelming popularity, but because of the opposition’s “negative legitimacy.” He argued that opponents focus on attacking Museveni personally rather than offering concrete solutions to voters’ daily problems, such as the cost of living.

“Uganda is unlucky in the sense that we are caught between a rock and a hard place,” Mwenda concluded, suggesting that while Museveni suffers from fatigue and administrative laxity, he remains a “better policy president” than his radicalized opponents.