Repeated Global Shocks Expose Persistent Weaknesses in African Economies
African economies are once again confronting the consequences of a major global crisis, as the ongoing conflict involving Iran disrupts energy markets, trade routes and supply chains, exposing vulnerabilities that previous shocks have yet to resolve.
Having weathered the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and now renewed instability in the Middle East within the span of six years, many countries across the continent continue to grapple with structural dependence on imported fuel, fertilizer and other strategic commodities.
The latest crisis has triggered concerns not only about its humanitarian toll but also its economic impact. Oil prices have surged, aviation routes have been disrupted, and uncertainty surrounding global trade is placing renewed pressure on fuel, food and transport costs.
Particular concern surrounds disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important corridors for oil, gas and fertilizer exports. Economists warn that prolonged instability in the region could slow global economic growth and potentially trigger another recession if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the consequences could be especially severe for vulnerable populations worldwide.
“When the Strait of Hormuz is strangled, the world’s poorest and most vulnerable cannot breathe,” Guterres said.
He warned that prolonged disruption could push an additional 32 million people into poverty and leave 45 million facing extreme hunger.
For Africa, the risks are particularly acute. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the continent’s heavy reliance on imported pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, while the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted grain and fertilizer markets, driving up food prices across much of the continent.
The current crisis highlights many of the same weaknesses.
Approximately 80 per cent of African countries are net importers of refined petroleum products, while sub-Saharan Africa imports nearly 80 per cent of its fertilizer requirements. As a result, external shocks quickly spread through economies, increasing transport costs, raising inflation and threatening agricultural production.
Governments across the continent have responded through measures such as fuel subsidies, public transport support programmes and initiatives aimed at strengthening energy security and fertilizer supply.
The aviation sector has been among the hardest hit.
According to the International Air Transport Association, global jet fuel prices nearly doubled during the height of the conflict. Fuel now accounts for between 30 and 55 per cent of operating costs for some African airlines, significantly higher than the global average of 20 to 30 per cent.
Passengers are also bearing the burden of rising costs.
“Because of fuel surcharges, which have increased between 20 and 50 per cent across airlines, we’ve seen ticket prices rise by anywhere from 20,000 to 100,000 birr,” said Iman Durri, Deputy General Manager of Safeway Travel & Tours PLC.
At the same time, disruptions affecting air travel through parts of the Middle East have redirected some passenger traffic toward African transit hubs, particularly Addis Ababa and Nairobi.
According to Maureen Kahonge, Director of Communications at the African Airlines Association, approximately 22 per cent of intra-African air traffic normally transits through hubs outside the continent.
The disruption, she said, has “drawn greater attention to African hubs as transit points for passengers travelling between Africa and the rest of the world.”
Global shipping has also been affected.
With disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and parts of the Red Sea, some cargo vessels have been forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing both transit times and transportation costs.
Yet amid the challenges, some policymakers see an opportunity.
Claver Gatete, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, argues that the crisis reinforces the urgency of strengthening regional value chains and reducing dependence on external supply networks.
“Talking to member countries about the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and how to implement it becomes much easier because they have seen what is likely to happen if you don’t do it,” Gatete said.
He pointed to the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, Morocco’s vast phosphate reserves and the ongoing implementation of the AfCFTA as examples of how Africa can build stronger regional supply chains and improve resilience against future shocks.
According to Gatete, crises often accelerate reforms that might otherwise take years to gain momentum.
Recent years have demonstrated that returning to business as usual after each crisis is not a sustainable strategy. Whether triggered by pandemics, wars or energy disruptions, countries with stronger industrial capacity, reliable transport networks, greater domestic financial resources and deeper regional integration are generally better equipped to absorb external shocks.
For Africa, this places renewed emphasis on implementing the AfCFTA, expanding regional transport links and increasing investment in refining, manufacturing and logistics infrastructure.
The next global shock may emerge from a different region and take a different form. The question facing African policymakers is whether the lessons of recent crises will translate into lasting reforms before it arrives.
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