Anticipated Changes in US Agribusiness Following Trump’s Election: Insights from GlobalData’s Paula Bauer

In the wake of the election of Donald Trump and the potential for a “Trump 2.0” presidency, the landscape of the US economy is set to undergo significant transformations. Paula Bauer, Vice President of Agricultural Consumer and Retail for North America at GlobalData—a leading data and analytics firm—provides her insights on the changes expected in the agribusiness sector.

Following the election results, Bauer noted a collective sigh of relief across the nation as clarity emerges regarding the occupants of the Senate, House, and White House.

“Today’s primary focus is economic policy,” she remarked, suggesting that the consolidation of power within a single party could pave the way for the long-awaited farm bill. With the potential for this legislation to be enacted early next year, there is also a possibility of extending the expired 2018 Farm Bill during the current lame duck session.

Bauer explained that a mere 20% of the total budget of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is allocated to agriculture programs and subsidies, while a substantial 80% is dedicated to nutrition assistance programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).

“With such a small percentage spent on crop assistance, it could be argued that the real power in a farm bill lies in its ability to provide a sense of stability,” she stated, emphasizing that markets thrive on stability.

However, Bauer cautioned that potential instabilities could arise from shifts in trade and renewable energy policies.

“US farmers are exceptional at what they do; they produce high-quality goods that are often exported to international markets,” she explained.

“It is crucial that trade policies do not alienate these critical buyers.”

The conversation also turned to the significant role that US agriculture plays within the energy sector.

With the impending changes in January 2025, Bauer raised questions regarding the future of energy policies and renewable fuel standards.

Historically, the Right has expressed skepticism about the electrification of vehicles due to concerns surrounding ‘dirty energy’ from certain power plants.

Nevertheless, Bauer posited that even if support for electrification wanes, the US might still benefit from advances in ethanol and biofuels for internal combustion engines and maintain support for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) technologies in air travel.

With emerging support from environmental groups, agricultural associations, pro-domestic energy coalitions, and businesses that have invested heavily in these technologies—including major petroleum companies—the future of US agribusiness may be characterized by both challenges and opportunities.

As the country braces itself for the changes that lie ahead under a Trump 2.0 presidency, the agribusiness sector will undoubtedly be watching closely to see how these developments unfold and shape their path forward.