6G Could Add $1.24 Trillion to Global Economy by 2040, GSMA Warns of $520 Billion Spectrum Risk
LONDON, November 5, 2026 — The global economy could gain an additional $1.24 trillion from the deployment of sixth-generation (6G) mobile networks by 2040, but shortages of suitable radio spectrum could put up to $520 billion of that potential value at risk, according to a new report by the GSMA.
The report, Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G, estimates that 6G could add the equivalent of 0.7% to global gross domestic product in 2040. The GSMA, which represents mobile operators worldwide, says the projected gains would come from advances in artificial intelligence (AI), industrial automation, integrated sensing, immersive digital services and more extensive connectivity.
However, the report warns that limited access to the spectrum needed to deploy 6G could put approximately 42% of the projected economic contribution — around $520 billion — at risk. The GSMA is urging governments and regulators to begin planning now, ahead of international spectrum decisions expected at the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027 (WRC-27).
Manufacturing and financial services expected to benefit most
Manufacturing is projected to account for 20% of 6G’s additional economic contribution in 2040, while financial services are expected to represent 19%. Construction could account for a further 13%, with information and communications technology contributing 12%.
The GSMA says 6G is expected to be designed around artificial intelligence, allowing networks to do more than transmit data. They are expected to support environmental sensing, intelligent decision-making and the integration of terrestrial and satellite connectivity.
The report identifies five areas expected to generate additional value: connectivity for future AI systems; industrial automation and robotics; enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access; integrated sensing and communication; and non-terrestrial networks designed to extend connectivity to underserved areas.
These capabilities could help businesses improve productivity, develop new services and extend digital innovation into sectors and locations that existing networks do not fully serve.
Regional economic gains projected
The report estimates that Greater China could record $390 billion in additional economic value by 2040. North America is forecast to gain $290 billion, while Europe could receive an additional $225 billion.
The scale of the benefits will depend on the pace of 6G adoption, national infrastructure investment and the ability of businesses to integrate new technologies into their operations.
Spectrum availability seen as critical
According to the GSMA analysis, mid-band spectrum is expected to account for 70% of 6G’s economic contribution in 2040 because of its role in providing the capacity and performance required by advanced digital services. Low-band spectrum is projected to contribute about 25%, supporting wider coverage in rural areas, inside buildings and in locations where higher-frequency signals have limited reach.
Restricted access to these frequency ranges could reduce the projected 6G contribution by as much as $520 billion in 2040, the report says. The GSMA warns that these potential losses would come in addition to wider economic effects on existing mobile networks that rely on the same spectrum resources.
John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA, said the economic opportunity would depend on decisions governments make about spectrum availability.
“6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy,” Giusti said, adding that more than $500 billion of the potential value would depend on spectrum decisions made today.
GSMA sets out three priorities for governments
To support the development of 6G, the report calls on governments and regulators to take three main actions:
- Make at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030. The GSMA says this should include upper 6 GHz spectrum, supported by additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz bands, with further spectrum released as demand grows.
- Make the 600 MHz band available for 6G. This would strengthen rural and indoor coverage and support wider deployment of connected devices and services. The report says 500 MHz could be considered where appropriate.
- Establish clear and timely national spectrum roadmaps. Predictable plans would give mobile operators greater certainty to prepare investments and deploy next-generation networks before demand rises.
With WRC-27 approaching, the GSMA says international coordination will be important to ensure that spectrum planning supports the development of next-generation mobile connectivity and its potential economic contribution.
Why the debate matters for Africa
For African countries, the 6G debate is also a question of long-term digital infrastructure planning. Spectrum policy, network investment and reliable connectivity will influence whether businesses, public institutions and communities can benefit from future applications in areas such as manufacturing, financial services, agriculture, education and healthcare.
Although commercial 6G deployment remains a future prospect, governments can begin assessing spectrum needs, infrastructure gaps, investment conditions and the skills required to participate in the next phase of digital development.
Giusti said spectrum should be viewed not only as a technical requirement for mobile networks but also as a foundation for future economic growth. The GSMA argues that decisions taken ahead of WRC-27 will help determine how much of the projected 6G opportunity can be realised.
Report: Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G – GSMA (PDF).
Note: The economic figures in this article are projections from the GSMA report, not realised economic gains. The $520 billion figure represents the report’s estimate of potential value at risk from spectrum constraints.
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