Does Being Hosts of AFCON 2025 Favour Morocco?

Morocco’s Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON 2025) could hardly have started better. After missing a penalty early on, the hosts beat Comoros 2-0 – an expected win, but one made special by Ayoub El Kaabi’s remarkable bicycle kick. It was the kind of goal that ignites a tournament and lets fans know that they might be in for something special.

Everyone would have predicted that Morocco would win that opening match. They might have done it without any home support. But Morocco fans have been packing the stadiums, and since that game, they’ve drawn with Mali and beaten Zambia, Tanzania, and Cameroon. So how much influence have the fans had? Have Morocco only made the semi-finals because they’re hosts?

The power of the home crowd

A home crowd’s support not only motivates players but also imposes psychological pressure on opponents. Morocco’s quarter-final against Cameroon was another example of how the home crowd can influence action on the pitch.

In a stadium filled with loud, passionate fans, Morocco were on the front foot early and dominated the match. Fans supported Morocco with thunderclaps and whistled Cameroon when they were in possession.  The latter’s inexperienced side seemed to struggle to cope with the pressure. Morocco dominated territory in the first half, quickly started winning set plays, and after 26 minutes had their first goal.

Morocco’s win over Cameroon stretched their unbeaten run to 25 matches. That goes back to their round of 16 exit at the last AFCON in 2023.

The popularity of AFCON and fan engagement

AFCON is one of Africa’s most-watched sporting events, attracting millions of fans. Football’s reach extends beyond stadiums and TV; digital platforms also influence how fans follow and interact with the games. On platforms like Winner Rwanda, AFCON is one of the prominent betting markets with a dedicated icon in the top menu. This visibility highlights the tournament’s popularity and the strong engagement among football fans.

The excitement of the tournament may feed into other forms of entertainment offered on these platforms. Sports betting is often hosted on the same platforms as betting games, such as Aviator, where players place bets and decide when to cash out before the plane leaves their screen.

Have Morocco overperformed?

Most pundits would agree that Morocco has stronger players than Comoros, Zambia, and Tanzania. Mali – with players like Noussair Mazraoui, Achraf Hakimi, and Brahim Díaz – would be a closer call. But there’s a reason that Morocco reached the World Cup semi-finals a few years ago: they have many talented players. So have they overperformed thanks to the home crowds, or are they merely meeting expectations?

Cameroon certainly has a talented team, too. Bryan Mbuemo, despite another difficult season for Manchester United, has been showing why his new club spent so much money on him last summer. Carlos Baleba, rumoured to join Mbuemo at United, had talked pre-tournament of his ambition to be “the best midfielder in the world”.

Whether Morocco have overperformed is a matter of opinion, but their reaching the semi-finals couldn’t be called a shock. They were one of the favourites pre-tournament. But home fans always influence football matches. The pandemic showed us that. In England’s Premier League, for example, when games were resumed with severely reduced crowds, the percentage of away wins dramatically increased. When fans returned in larger numbers, things returned to normal.

Many past international tournaments have favoured the hosts. As just a few examples, France won the World Cup in 1998; Italy and England reached the final of EURO 2020 as two of many co-hosts; and Ivory Coast won AFCON two years ago. By hosting, Morocco hoped to join that list of winners.